Global Warming Made Simple (rev 12/7/15)
See also average global temperature assessment at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.comEnergy balance
Simple calculations in radiation heat transfer demonstrate
that much of the change in average global temperature that has been called
Global Warming can be accounted for by a small reduction of low altitude
clouds.
Generally accepted
knowledge:
1.
Clouds cover about 60% of the planet all the time1.
2.
Average radiation from the sun at earth’s orbital
distance is fairly constant at about 1367 W/m2.
3.
About thirty percent of the energy from the sun is
reflected2 by the planet (albedo plus specular reflection) and
therefore does not need to be radiated from the planet.
4.
The planet radiates energy over its spherical surface
which is four times its cross section area, which is the effective area that
receives (intersects) radiation energy from the sun.
5.
On average over a century or so, the average global
temperature does not change very much so the energy received by the planet from
the sun must average out to about the same as that radiated from the planet.
6.
Clouds, because they consist of bits of liquid or solid
water, radiate energy according to their emissivity and the fourth power of
their absolute temperature.
7.
Average emissivity, ε, of the surface is about 0.98.
8.
The average emissivity of clouds3, εc,
is about 0.5.
9.
At average cloud altitude, air temperature, and thus
cloud temperature, declines with increasing altitude at a rate of 0.0065 °K/m.
(1962 US Standard Atmosphere)
10. Average
global temperature before global warming was about 287.4 °K.
11. Average
global temperature increased about 0.74 °K during the 20th century
(the trend has been flat since before 2001).
Change in cloud
reflectance
Part of the radiation that comes from the sun is reflected;
most as albedo from clouds and a bit from land and some as specular reflection
from water. A small change in the area of cloud cover causes reflectance change
which produces an easily calculable change in average global absolute temperature,
T. T can be determined from:
T = ((1-a)*S/(4*ε1*σ))^0.25
°K
Where:
a = planet average reflectance ≈ 0.3
S = Solar constant = 1367 W m-2
ε1 = over-all planet average emissivity including effects of
clouds and ghg = 0.612
σ = Stephan-Boltzmann constant = 5.6697E-8 W m-2 K-4
From this we calculate that a decrease of planet average
reflectivity (as a result of fewer clouds) from 0.3 to the very slightly
reduced value of 0.2964 would result in an average global temperature increase
of 0.37 °K.
Change in cloud area (added 12/7/17)
The basic
equation relating solar heating to average earth temperature is
S*(1-a)=ε*σ*A*T4 (1)
Where:
a = albedo
= fc*rc+(1-fc)*rnc. ≈ 0.3
Credible
values:
fc = 0.62
= fraction of area covered by clouds
rc = 0.47
= average reflectivity of clouds
rnc = 0.03
= average reflectivity of area not covered by clouds
T=average
global temperature ≈ 288 K
albedo at
T:
a = 0.62*0.47
+ (1-0.62)*0.03 = 0.3028 (OK) (2)
Combine
this in (1) with T = 288
S*(1-(0.62*0.47
+ (1-0.62)*0.03)) = ε*σ*A*288 4
(3)
Albedo at
T-0.5 =287.5
a1 =
(0.62*0.47)*(1+x) + (1-0.62)*0.03*(1-x) (4)
Combine
this with (1) with T = 287.5
S*(1-((0.62*0.47)*(1+x)
+ (1-0.62)*0.03*(1-x) = ε*σ*A*287.54
(5)
Divide (5)
by (3) and solve for x
x =
0.017247 ≈ 1.72%
Thus, all else equal, an increase in cloud cover of 1.72%
would result in an average global temperature decrease of 0.5 K
Change in cloud altitude.
If the decline caused by greenhouse gases (mostly water
vapor) in effective surface
emissivity is ignored and it is assumed that none of the radiation from the
surface under the clouds leaves the planet, the energy balance in equation form
is:
H = Hnc + Hc
Where:
H = total energy received from the sun and thus radiated
from the planet.
Hnc = Energy radiated from the planet surface
(below the atmosphere) between clouds.
Hc = Energy radiated from clouds at average cloud
altitude.
The only unknown in this energy balance is average cloud
temperature so it can be solved for. The Equation can be solved for average
cloud temperature before global warming and then for average cloud temperature
after the surface temperature increased 0.74 °K.
H = 1367/4*(1-0.3) = 239.22 W/m2
Then before global warming the energy radiated from between
clouds is:
Hnc1 = (1-0.6)*ε*σ*Ts4 = 0.4*0.98*5.6697x10-8 * (287.4)4
= 151.63 W/m2
And after global warming the energy radiated from between clouds
is:
Hnc2 = 0.4*0.98*5.6697x10-8 *
(287.4+0.74)4 = 153.2 W/m2
Average cloud temperatures before and after the 20th
century warming can now be calculated:
Average cloud temperature before global warming:
239.22 = 151.63 + 0.6*εc*σ*Tc14 =
151.63 + 0.6*0.5*5.6697x10-8* Tc14
Tc1 = 267.88 °K
This equates to an average cloud altitude of 3120 m which is
reasonable.
239.22 = 153.2 + 0.6*0.5*5.6697x10-8* Tc24
Tc2 = 266.67 °K
The change in average cloud temperature is then
ΔTc = 266.67-267.88 = -1.21 °K
This equates to an increase in average cloud altitude, to
account for the entire increase in average global temperature of 0.74 °K, of
1.21/0.0065 = 185.6 m or, for half the increase, 0.37 °K in 92.8 m.
The effective
emissivity of the surface might be less than 0.98. Also, some of the radiation
from the surface under the clouds makes it through the clouds. But the end
result must always be the same; over a long period of time the sum of all the
radiation leaving the planet must, on average, equal all of the radiation
received by the planet. And also, in any calculation, average cloud altitude
must be reasonable.
If it is assumed that the effective emissivity of the
surface between clouds (to space) is 0.65 and the surface beneath clouds (to
space) is 0.22, the effect on average cloud altitude is exactly the same as
determined above (185.6 m).
In fact, any combination of effective surface emissivities
that passes the sanity test of energy balance and reasonable average cloud
altitude will come to the same result: About half of the surface-temperature
increase which has been called global warming can be accounted for by an
increase of average cloud altitude of only about 100 meters.
Discussion and conclusions
Henrik Svensmark,
a Danish physicist, discovered a natural mechanism that causes a change in the
amount of low-level clouds: Sunspot number increase indicates solar magnetic
field increase which increases shielding of the earth from galactic cosmic
rays. Reduced cosmic rays results in fewer low altitude clouds. Fewer low-level
clouds results in both lower reflectance and higher average cloud altitude.
An abstract of Svensmark’s
paper, which was published in 2000, is at http://prl.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v85/i23/p5004_1
Because higher
altitude clouds are colder and radiate less energy to space, and fewer clouds
means lower reflectance, more sunspot activity causes global warming and less
sunspot activity causes global cooling.
That is, both
contribute to temperature change in the same direction so, when combined, they
could easily account for a substantial part of the temperature change that has
been called Global Warming.
Note that a low
but wide solar cycle could have just as much influence as a tall but narrow one;
so the time-integral of sunspot numbers, which accounts for both magnitude and
time of a solar cycle, is the determining factor. Of course the time-integral
of sunspot numbers must be reduced by the time-integral of radiation from the
planet and a proxy factor must be applied.
The rest of average global temperature change in the 20th
century is accounted for by natural net global ocean surface temperature
oscillation.
Without human caused Global Warming there can be no human
caused climate change.
References
1.
Average cloud cover http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/01/science/earth/0501-clouds.html?_r=0
2.
Goode, P.
R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth's
Reflectance". Geophysical Research Letters 28 (9):
1671–1674. Bibcode:2001GeoRL..28.1671G
3.
T.R.
Shippert, S.A. Clough, P.D. Brown, W.L. Smith, R.O. Knuteson, and S.A.
Ackerman. "Spectral Cloud Emissivities from LBLRTM/AERI QME". Proceedings
of the Eighth Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting
March 1998 Tucson, Arizona. http://www.arm.gov/publications/proceedings/conf08/extended_abs/shippert_tr.pdf.